Impact Assessment of Investment in Roads Sub Sector in Kenya

The aim of the project is to identify and demonstrate the impact that additional road investments have on Kenya’s economic and social development.

During this project, a framework and methodology will be developed that will enable the Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA), the African Development Bank (AfDB), and any other interested parties including local independent consultants, to monitor the effect of road investments across a range of impacts.

The impact assessment is part of the larger programme funded by the AfDB focussing on the entire Mombasa – Mariakani Highway in Kenya. Cardno ITT has been commissioned by KeNHA to provide consultancy services for impact assessment of investment in the roads sub-sector. This assignment has three main objectives set out in the brief:

  1. To identify, assess and quantify, to the extent possible, the socio-economic, spatial and societal impacts of investment made on the road sub-sector in the past 10-15 years. This will involve the assessment of the distributional impact on the road sub-sector, on the structure of land use and its development as well as the monetised and non-monetised impacts of investment on road infrastructure projects
  2. To identify Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), establish baseline data for the indicators and devise a mechanism that will help to periodically monitor and evaluate the economic and social impacts of investment in the road sub-sector
  3. To develop a guidance note for KeNHA on identification and quantification of the direct and indirect impacts of transport infrastructure investment during the procurement process.

In order to achieve these objectives, a further series of underlining tasks have been set for the team to complete:

  • Conduct a review of existing ex-ante and-ex post evaluation studies and methods, in order to identify and assess the impacts of road infrastructure investment on economic development and poverty reduction
  • Identify and characterise the relationship between road sector investment and general development and evaluate the impact in a wider sense, taking into consideration factors such as mobility, accessibility, employment, improved efficiency, social cohesion
  • Develop a framework for analysing the investments to ensure efficiency and optimisation in the allocation of funds for future road infrastructure projects
  • Develop a roads evaluation framework, of road sub-sector investments, for analysing projects as a basis for justification for inclusion and consideration in the evaluation of appraisals
  • Develop guidance for policy makers, providers and managers of road infrastructure on how to identify the wider effects of transport infrastructure on regional development and how to assess the relevant impacts in the evaluation of infrastructure projects. The consultant has been advised to refer to the relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while proposing indicators to assess the impact.

The team are also tasked in assessing the impact of road infrastructure investment on associated health facilities and services. Investment in infrastructure and access can often have knock on affects to local businesses and services like health facilities and it's important to monitor such affects to ensure outcomes are optimised in all areas. These tasks are outlined as:

  • Assess the development of health facilities because of infrastructure development
  • Monitor and assess the trends in birth and mortality rates
  • Conduct a strategic analysis on the role of infrastructure development in healthcare delivery.

Similarly in the education sector, the team will be required to undertake the following:

  • Assess the development of educational facilities as a result of infrastructure development
  • Assess whether investment on road sub-sector improves educational participation
  • Assess the impact of infrastructure investment in the road sub-sector on school enrolment.